Much more than just electricity, but could and should be mostly or all electricity

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Data centres and energy security, because data is, literally, electric power.

Now that Big Tech has finally, after wasting decades of non-recoupable time on renewables, discovered the concept of baseload electrical demand, what are the implications for the generation fleet?

Offhand, most would reply that the generation fleet needs to expand. But by how much? All knowledge workers—and most people who use computers are knowledge workers—use AI now, and those ten-billion-parameter models use multiples of kilowatts of electric power per prompt. So as AI insinuates itself into more of our online activities, it’s an easy prediction that demand for electric power will increase.

But AI “users” today are profligate with prompts, i.e. with electric power, because the companies that tempt them with easy AI interfaces like ChatGPT are picking up the tab for not just the salaries of the mathematicians who build and refine models, but also all the electric power that runs them. Soon subscription charges will increase as Big Tech looks to recoup its gargantuan investment in models and data centres. When subscription prices rise, just how insinuated will AI remain in our working lives? Is it possible that AI use plateaus at its current level?

The AI revolution is just one wildcard in the game of electrical load projection.

The Sleepers: indoor temperature control, and transport

Another wildcard is climate change policy. In North America that policy space is in a nadir unseen in its roughly 30-year history. The current U.S. government is hostile to the very idea of climate change. Will that attitude persist across the next few administrations? What will Canada do in response? What should we do?

This is important, because it touches on energy policy, and energy demand. The two biggest energy demands in North America are indoor temperature control (or ITC—space/water heating and refrigeration), and transport. Electrical demand, which is a super-category of energy demand because electricity can meet both the heating component of ITC (it already meets all refrigeration) and transport energy demand, is today a distant third in terms of the quantity of energy—even when you factor in AI at today’s usage. ^*

Will electricity stay in third place? It has the potential to rocket past either or both of combustible-fueled ITC and transport, but that’s no guarantee it will.

If your organization is in line to be affected by the short-, medium-, or long-term direction of climate policy, you should know that this space could develop irrespective of climate policy. EVs are cheaper to operate than ICEs. If EV prices fall, sales will outstrip those of ICEs, and it doesn’t matter whether you, or those you elect, think climate change is a hoax or not.

If you’re grappling with the implications of any of these, feel free to reach out.